Event Recap: National Grid’s Modernization Plan with Melissa Lavinson
December 19, 2023
Event Summary
On December 12th, A Better City hosted an event with Melissa Lavinson, National Grid’s Head of Corporate Affairs, New England, who discussed National Grid’s Modernization Plan. Electric Distribution Companies (EDCs) are required to develop Electric Sector Modernization Plans (ESMPs) that detail how they will meet forecasted increases in demand over the next 5 years, 10 years, and beyond, and meet Massachusetts’ climate and clean energy goals. ESMPs detail forecasted capacity increases, requiring new and upgraded substations, as well as transmission and distribution. EDC’s are in the process of getting stakeholder feedback in addition to the Grid Modernization Advisory Council (GMAC) recommendations filed on November 20th, 2023. The GMAC was established as part of the MA 2022 Climate Bill.
In January 2024, National Grid and other EDCs will file their ESMPs to the DPU. In addition to updating the amount of energy that will need to be generated, transmitted, and distributed in Massachusetts, EDCs are anticipating a shift in peak demand from peaking in summer months to peaking in winter months, meaning that renewable energy sources like solar will be less reliable and available during winter peak hours. Additionally, EDCs will need to transition from a grid that is generated by 50% or more of natural gas, widely seen as a reliable fuel source, to a renewable energy electric system. As Melissa said during her presentation, this process change can’t be sufficiently summarized as solely an energy transition as it will require a full transformation of utilities and their infrastructure to achieve MA’s climate goals.
National Grid’s ESMP proposes around $2B in investments across network infrastructure, platforms and technology, and customer programs to deliver a smarter, cleaner, and stronger electric grid that ensures sufficient capacity to accommodate economic growth and electrified buildings and transportation systems. Importantly, utilities must prioritize an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy and energy system, as the costs of utility infrastructure upgrades are typically borne by ratepayers.
Discussion & Q+A
A Better City’s members and staff asked a series of questions in an open discussion:
- Concerns with transformer delays: In one case a homeless shelter waited 11 months to become operational due to transformer supply chain issues. Melissa acknowledged the difficulty and pain points with such delays, sharing that on average nation-wide, the wait for a utility-scale transformer is 150 weeks, and on the customer-side, delays of 16-18 months can be expected. National Grid and other EDCs are actively thinking about how to create more inventory, how to size transformers and other needed equipment appropriately, and how to certify suppliers according to cybersecurity best practices.
- Concerns with potential brownouts or blackouts if the grid is not able to meet demand: Melissa affirmed that there is sufficient capacity for the next 5 years, but that there will need to be significant innovation and transformation, including demand response technology, virtual power plants, and distributed energy generation with flexible load, after that. In the next 5-10 years, Massachusetts’ EDCs will need to accelerate the build out of transmission and distribution infrastructure, in addition to decarbonizing power generation. Melissa requested help from the business community in changing the paradigm to proactively build for the future energy system that will get us to net zero by 2050, rather than building to the existing energy system.
- Anticipated impact on ratepayers: Melissa said that over the next 5 years, National Grid estimates the impact to the average ratepayer to be a 3% annual increase, resulting in a 15% increase over the next 5 years.
- Planning for resilience: When asked about resilience and how National Grid is planning for the impacts of extreme temperatures, high velocity wind, flooding, and other climate threats, Melissa shared that National Grid is already seeing climate impact their system. They used to plan for 4 very large storms per year; there is now an average of 10 storms per year of similar magnitude. National Grid is piloting vegetation management programs, seeing 40% enhanced resilience in areas with proactive tree pruning around utility lines, which will be expanded across the system. They are also putting technology sensors throughout the system to help reroute power and shorten response times in the event of power failure. For flood impacts, National Grid is looking to raise some sub stations that are in existing flood plains, and they are also tracking thermal load on their systems to prepare for high heat, as well as wind gust levels and their impact on overhead lines. Melissa asked the business community to anticipate capacity changes that would help utilities like National Grid better plan and build for the energy system of the future.
To view Melissa’s slides, please see here. The event recording may be found here. For more information on how to get involved with ABC’s engagement with utility ESMPs, the GMAC, the Energy Efficiency Advisory Council, and emerging legislation impacting our electric system, please contact Yve Torrie or Isabella Gambill.
